Inbound travel to Middle East could fall 25-30%

INTERNATIONAL REPORT — Inbound travel to the Middle East could fall sharply in 2026, by as much as 25% to 30%, with an extended two-month conflict in Iran, according to research by Tourism Economics.

Dave Goodger, managing director EMEA for Tourism Economics, presented the research as part of “The Middle East Outlook: Assessing the Impact on Global Travel and Hospitality” webinar from Future Hospitality Summit (FHS) Saudi Arabia on Wednesday.

Tourism Economics showed three projections for Middle East inbound arrivals: one was baseline with no conflict which showed a 13% increase in inbound travel; the second scenario was a conflict with an early resolution (which Goodger acknowledged was not likely since the war was already entering its third week); and a third scenario with a two-month conflict, which showed inbound travel to the Middle East overall declining 27% year-over-year. The projection suggested  travel within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — declined by 26% YOY, while non-GCC countries saw a 34% decline. 

Goodger said economic activity in the Middle East last year exceeded many expectations, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt being the biggest beneficiaries. That had led to a lot of optimism for the region’s growth in 2026, which has now been dampened by the war in Iran.

“What we were expecting in 2026 was that this was going to be a year of rebound. But sadly, that is not the case for reasons I'm sure everyone's aware of,” he said. “This is something we're coming to grips with now. We are updating all of our forecasts. We're running alternative scenarios. This is a sneak peek of our current thinking, some of the key risks, some of the key changes that may [happen].”

Goodger said trying to forecast the travel impact in the middle of a conflict is challenging.

“The good news from this is we do always see recovery. Travel is resilient. People do want these new experiences,” he said. “The experiences that are available in the Middle East are things that people will want and they will return to it. It's a question of how long it will take for them to return?”

Tourism Economics also projected that a protracted conflict in Iran could cut travel spending in the Middle East by as much as $56 billion, with $36 billion of those cuts coming to GCC countries. That would represent a baseline decline of over 35% for the Middle East.

The projection said the biggest impact for inbound arrivals would happen in the second quarter of 2026, with a full recovery potentially coming in the fourth quarter.

Regionally, Tourism Economics said the biggest impact would be felt by Africa (with Egypt having the largest potential impact on international nights at risk). Travel to and from Asia Pacific could also feel a significant impact because of flights disrupted that fly into the Middle East.

In addition, the research found that higher air fares are a risk as oil prices continue to spike during the conflict.

Goodger also said the study found that increased regionalization of travel could benefit Europe the most.

“We are going to see that move towards Europe. It's what we've seen… when we looked at what happened following Arab Spring and what’s happened with other impacts in the Middle East,” he said. “We did see a drop in travel, notably from European travelers, going to those countries, and they stayed at home within Europe.

“Mediterranean destinations benefited, Spain being probably the largest Mediterranean destination... This is going to compound that. So Spain, obviously, is set to see large gains. The difference this time is that we will also see opportunities there for North Africa," he said, noting potentially gains in countries like Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt.