How will violence impact Mexico tourism?

MEXICO – Following the killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes on February 22, retaliatory cartel violence has caused travel disruptions across Mexico.

The U.S. Embassy initially issued shelter-in-place orders for several tourist destinations, especially Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, while other regions of the country appear largely unaffected. Riviera Nayarit region, which includes destinations like Nuevo Vallarta, Sayulita, and Punta Mita, also has been affected by the violence. Mazatlán, a popular resort town on Mexico’s Pacific coast, has also seen disruptions.

On Tuesday, U.S. tourists were evacuating parts of Mexico after the U.S. State Department relaxed its advisory.

Mexico’s Jalisco state government said on Tuesday that “order and stability have been restored” to the state’s main tourist areas, including Puerto Vallarta and the Guadalajara metro area.

Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, Mexico’s secretary of National Defense, said that 2,500 reinforcements had been sent to Jalisco, meaning roughly 7,000 military personnel were in the state on Monday to maintain control.

An alert from the U.S. embassy on Tuesday said that public transportation and business continued to return to normal operations, and that flight schedules had returned to normal in Guadalajara and many airlines had extra flights planned in Puerto Vallarta. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, operator of the Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara airports, said they were operating 95% and 96% of scheduled flights, respectively.

In a statement from Monday night, the Jalisco government said a strong operational presence from Mexico’s Navy, National Defense Secretariat, National Guard and State Public Security Secretariat enabled the partial recovery of mobility and “guaranteed conditions of calm for residents and visitors.”

“Puerto Vallarta is in safe conditions, with a strong presence of federal and state forces ready to respond to any possible contingency,” it said. “Visitors have been safeguarded and properly assisted by hotels, the airport and tourism establishments.”

The bigger question is how long will the violence last and how will it impact tourism across the country as headlines continue to show large-scale coordinated attacks in Jalisco state, including at the Pacific resort of Puerto Vallarta and the World Cup host city of Guadalajara?

One major Mexican hotel company executive told Hotel Investment Today they are monitoring the situation day by day and operations remain largely business as usual, with no major issues to report at this stage.

Hotel consultant John McCarthy of Leisure Partners in Mexico City said late Monday, “It’s probably too soon to assess any real impact on hotel performance.”

McCarthy said at the time that the next 36 to 48 hours would be critical in demonstrating that the government maintains “absolute control over the situation.”

“From what we know so far, the perpetrators achieved maximum media impact but without loss of civilian life – at least none that has been reported,” McCarthy said. “If that remains the case, this will likely be seen not as a destabilizing event, but as a strong and decisive action by President Claudia Sheinbaum and her administration.”

McCarthy said tourism markets tend to react more to prolonged instability than to isolated incidents. “If the response continues to be firm and effective, the long-term effect on Puerto Vallarta and Mexico’s broader hotel sector should be minimal,” he said.

Reports suggest the highly visited states of Yucatan, Quintana Roo and Oaxaca are not among Mexico’s hotspots of violence. Mexico City does not rank among the most violent states either.

There were reports of narco roadblocks and arson attacks against businesses in Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, Tulum, and Cancun. But there do not appear to be any reports of targeted violence against tourists.

Cancún was reportedly facing moderate disruptions with flight delays and some violence in the area, but resorts remain open for tourists. Travelers are being advised to avoid off-property excursions.

Mexico City is under heightened security, with airport and transportation disruptions affecting travelers. However, tourist areas remain open and secure.

Cozumel is experiencing some localized incidents but remains largely unaffected, though cruise port operations are uncertain. U.S. Embassy advisories are in place.

Los Cabos is completely unaffected, with all operations running as usual.

Truist Securities reported that Hyatt Hotels Corp. has the highest exposure to both Mexico and Jalisco among the major public hotel companies in the U.S., followed by Marriott with Hilton, Wyndham, and Choice having much less exposure.

Using data from CoStar Truist estimated that Hyatt’s total rooms exposure to Mexico is ~8.5% and Jalisco represents approximately ~1.0% of total rooms exposure. Marriott’s Mexico exposure is ~3.3% of rooms and Jalisco is ~0.4% of rooms.

Tourism in Mexico has been on the rise. The country reportedly welcomed a record 47.4 million visitors between January and July 2025 — a 13.8% increase on the same period in 2024.