NATIONAL REPORT — Hotels are sitting in the development pipeline longer than ever, with
record numbers in the elusive “early planning stage”. Complicating matters is the hotels that are being built are taking longer to build,
according to research from Jan Freitag, national director, Hospitality
Analytics at CoStar.
The research found that over
the last 25 years, the average construction duration has increased from around
17 months in the decade after the year 2000 to around 23.5 months now, with
most of that increase happening in the last five years.
Freitag said he did research
up and down the chain scales, and not surprisingly, the delays get longer the higher
up you go, with luxury hotels going from an average of 22 months in 2000 to 30
months today.
He said his research found
there was “nowhere to hide” from delivery timeline delays. Still, the increases
have been especially pronounced in the middle, with midscale and upper midscale
hotel construction timelines seeing roughly 50% added to their delivery
timelines, and economy properties trending close behind. Freitag said upscale
and luxury also have lengthened construction duration, though by a smaller
share.
Freitag's research
suggests that many limited-service hotels have absorbed the largest
proportional hit, even as luxury remains the slowest to deliver.
These delays are impacting
developers' costs and, in turn, making new hotels riskier, as the extended
timelines can lead to unforeseen and higher costs for investors. The time from
groundbreaking to opening has stretched significantly while the hotel remains
in the pipeline, especially in the last five years, as COVID disrupted supply
chains and labor availability.
“The underlying trend just
speaks to everything taking longer,” Freitag said in an interview with Hotel
Investment Today. “Everything is a little bit more expensive, and everything
takes a little bit longer than we originally thought.”
For instance, the rule of
thumb was that for an economy-type property in a warmer climate that could
support year-round construction, it would roughly take a year to build from
start to finish. That year has now averaged 19 months. For full-service, upscale
hotels, it used to take 24 months to build. That’s now turned into 27 months.
So, this all leads to the
question of why this is happening. Freitag said the answers aren’t easy (nor
are any readily available solutions), but he has some general ideas that should
sound familiar.
The first is a labor shortage,
which COVID certainly exacerbated, but Freitag said started way before that.
“After the great financial
crisis (2008), when there was no real need, there was no demand for housing. My
sense is, talking to people in the industry, that subcontractors from Latin
America went back to Latin America because their services just weren’t needed,”
he said. “Now we don’t have a lot of [subcontractors], electricians and so
forth.”
Freitag said labor has been a
stubborn bottleneck, with contractors reporting elevated wage pressures and
persistent difficulty sourcing those qualified subcontractors. In addition, he
noted turnover has further eroded productivity.
The other major factor is
increased costs from many directions, with higher interest rates increasing the
cost of construction loans, making delays more expensive, and requiring
resequencing to manage draw schedules. Those higher inflation costs also show
up in higher prices for construction materials, which have shortened
bid-validity windows and pushed owners to pre-purchase long-lead items, adding
more complexity and risk to project management.
Freitag said the tariffs issue
didn’t even have time to appear in this research and could present future
complications that further increase costs and timelines.
More complicated to build
Another factor is that hotel
prototypes are much more complicated than they were 25 years ago, across all
segments, from economy to midscale and upper-midscale hotels, where even
standardized rooms can be challenging to build. Freitag also said that, according
to industry participants, municipal review timelines, utility coordination and
supply constraints on prefab components can erase the speed advantages these
segments traditionally enjoyed.
“We talk about activating
spaces and we talk about rooftops, and we talk about having more outlets, even
in limited-service hotels,” he said. “Things have evolved, and that then means
it takes longer to build.”

There are no places to hide. This elongation of the construction cycle hits all hotel classes, not evenly in terms of months, but evenly in terms of impact. It all takes longer than it used to.
Jan Freitag
Even the boom in extended-stay
hotels has complicated and extended construction timelines.
“You could argue that some of
the lower-end, extended-stay hotels, the economy and midscale type of brands
are more complicated to build because the room serves a couple of functions,”
he said. “It’s not just a sleeping room, but also a living room and a kitchen.
The room is just more complicated… and all of that just makes it more
complicated, which then elongates the timeline.”
Looking ahead, Freitag said
longer schedules will likely be a reality across all classes for the remainder
of the decade, with limited-service hotels continuing to bear the biggest brunt
of the delays.
“There are no places to hide,”
he said. “This elongation of the construction cycle hits all hotel classes, not
evenly in terms of months, but evenly in terms of impact. It all takes longer
than it used to.”