GLOBAL REPORT – Most global regions will see moderate hotel
rate growth in 2026, with geopolitical instability and uncertainty around U.S.
tariff policy “keeping a lid” on sharper increases, according to American
Express Global Business Travel’s Hotel Monitor, published on Wednesday.
The Monitor—based on data from Amex GBT’s data lake along
with inflation and GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, modeled
with open-source software Prophet—projects North America will be among those
regions with moderate rate growth, particularly in the U.S., which could see a
downturn in inbound demand.
The Monitor forecasts that Mexico also will see only
moderate increases with a strong hotel construction pipeline, while Canada’s
rate growth could be higher. Toronto has the highest projected rate increase
for the region in the Monitor, up 5.8% year-over-year (YOY), followed by
Chicago (4.2%), New York and San Francisco (each 4%).
Toronto has the highest projected rate increase for the [North American] region in the Monitor, up 5.8% year-over-year (YOY), followed by Chicago (4.2%), New York and San Francisco (each 4%).
Amex GBT projects “relatively stable” hotel prices in
Europe, though certain cities will have sharper increases due to changing
policies. Short-term rental restrictions in Amsterdam—which also is seeing VAT
increases—and Barcelona could help push up rates in those cities by 11% and 5.1%
YOY, respectively, according to the Monitor. Rate increases also are likely to
be higher in the U.K. due to increases to employer national insurance
contributions, which will increase the wages that hoteliers pay employees. Amex
GBT projects rates will increase 4.2% YOY in London, 3.9% in Manchester and 5.7%
in Edinburgh.
In the Asia Pacific region, Amex GBT projects strong rate
growth for India, though not as high as rate increases this year. That includes
a 6.4% YOY rate increase in Bengaluru, a 5.7% increase in Hyderabad and a 5.3%
increase in Mumbai. The Monitor projects more moderate increases in China with
some cities seeing rate declines, including Guangzhou, where it projects rates
will decline 0.7% YOY.
Latin America hotels should have a “strong 2026” with
growing demand from international visitors, according to Amex GBT. The Monitor
projects rates to increase YOY by 5.6% in Buenos Aires, 5% in Rio de Janeiro, 2%
in Bogotá and 0.9% in Santiago.
In the Middle East and Africa, Amex GBT projects moderate
rate increases due to a strong construction pipeline in the Middle East. That
includes a YOY rate increase of 3.1% in Abu Dhabi, 1.4% in Doha, 2% in Dubai
and 2.3% in Riyadh. The Monitor projects a sharper rate increase of 4.7% YOY in
Cape Town, which has “high occupancy and a limited supply of hotels with
security accreditation,” according to the Monitor.
Note: This story was originally published in Business Travel
News.