NATIONAL REPORT – Amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures,
waning consumer confidence, and shorter booking windows, hotel performance for
the upcoming Fourth of July holiday is drawing more scrutiny than in past years,
according to a new report from STR’s Hannah Smith.
Smith wrote that industry analysts are watching closely to
gauge how well the sector navigates this important summer leisure travel
period. Fortunately, she said, STR’s forward-looking data offers encouraging
signs and reasons for optimism.
Shorter booking windows
Recent Forward STAR data reinforces what they’ve been
hearing consistently from clients: booking windows have shortened, largely due
to ongoing economic uncertainty.
The coming weeks in June highlight that trend, as occupancy
on the books continues to move higher than last year as we get closer to stay
dates. For example, as of May 12, the week ending June 28 was running about 1
percentage point behind the same time last year in the Top 25 Markets. Closer
to the end of June, that variance has improved and occupancy on the books is
now more than 1% ahead of this time last year.
Similar holiday ahead?
Occupancy on the books for the July 4 holiday week has been
pacing almost 1% ahead of last year since April 28, with some acceleration over
the first two weeks of June.
Last year, July 4 fell on a Thursday, which meant occupancy
was more muted. Further, the week of the 4th of July last year produced the
lowest weekly occupancy level (64%) of the summer in the Top 25 Markets,
sitting at 59% on weeknights (Sunday-Thursday) and 76% on the weekend
(Friday-Saturday). Only Labor Day week posted a lower occupancy between March
and November last year.
Forward STAR data for 2025 shows occupancy on the books for
the holiday weekend trending similar to last year. However, the full week (June
29-July 5) is trending slightly above the holiday week last year.
Most of the growth is coming at the start of the week, with
occupancy on the books up 6% for Sunday night, 4% for Monday night, and 3% for
Tuesday night. This occupancy premium over last year has been increasing as the
holiday gets closer, driving the acceleration for the week as a whole.
With the 4th of July falling on a Friday this year, STR said
the start of the week may be more open for business travel, pushing higher
occupancies on the books for Sunday through Tuesday. STR is not seeing this
same trend across the following two weeks (July 6-12 and July 13-19), as
weekend occupancy is trending stronger versus last year than weekday.
A few markets will also receive a lift from later-round
matches in the FIFA Club World Cup at end of June and beginning of July.