NATIONAL REPORT – There is not a lot of clarity today about
U.S. hotel performance for 2026, especially after a soft second half of 2025.
STR and Tourism Economics in November, citing little change
in the macroeconomic environment, revised downward its 2026 outlook with occupancy
expected to drop 0.3 percentage points, ADR to dip 0.1 percentage points and
RevPAR off 0.3 percentage points.
With the launch of Hotel Investment Today’s advisory board,
we asked the members if they are more or less optimistic about a 2026 RevPAR
rebound. Here is what they had to say:
Geopolitical turmoil is increasing, and the Fed’s rate cuts have not translated to a meaningful reduction in interest rates.
Maki Bara
Glyn Aeppel, founder, president, CEO, Glencove Capital
“I’m optimistic as the hospitality sector has now fully
recovered from COVID and there appears to be sustained growth in many
markets. Tourism is strong and there has been limited new supply, which is
driving up RevPARs and fueling positive dynamics.”
Maki Nakamura Bara, president, co-founder, The Chartres
Lodging Group
“I’m less optimistic. While there was some optimism at the
end of 2024/beginning of 2025, actual U.S. RevPAR this year has been flat to
slightly down overall and is forecasted to end the year slightly down. Geopolitical
turmoil is increasing, and the Fed’s rate cuts have not translated to a
meaningful reduction in interest rates.”
Adi Bhoopathy, managing principal, head of Capital Markets,
Noble Investment Group
“We remain optimistic about growth in 2026. While many
major forecasting companies are adjusting their 2026 forecasts slightly
downward, albeit still positive, and varying from market to market. The
continued tailwind of consumer desire to pursue experiences over goods, growth
in the traveling demographics, major events like FIFA across the U.S., and then
coming off a disrupted 2025 as the base year.“
David Duncan, president and CEO, First Hospitality
“We’re slightly more optimistic than we were six months ago,
but we remain fairly guarded about the pace and scale of RevPAR growth heading
into 2026. Industry forecasts have generally trended more cautious in the
second half of 2025, and our own forward booking data reflects similar
patterns.
Regardless of what you think of them, a major tax and investment bill is passed. Tariffs are more predictable as are interest rate levels. Customers hold back on uncertainty and respond when the norms are established.
David McCaslin
“We’re seeing encouraging signs in group and business
transient demand—both tracking relatively well—but the transient segment,
particularly in the middle market, continues to underperform. That softness is
tempering our outlook. On the brighter side, group business remains a solid
contributor, business transient is holding steady, and luxury demand continues
to show strong momentum.”
Sean Hehir, managing partner, Trinity Investments
“We are cautiously more optimistic about a 2026 RevPAR
rebound. Our optimism is grounded in what we are seeing across our portfolio –
the continued strengthening of our in-house group strategy, which has reduced
reliance on citywide events and provided a more stable and predictable base of
demand. While we remain mindful of softness in select markets, the combination
of our stronger internal pacing, improved sales channel mix, and continued rate
integrity across key segments reinforces our view that 2026 will represent a
more stable and constructive RevPAR environment than originally anticipated.”
Eric Jacobs, chief global growth officer, Aimbridge
Hospitality
“We are more optimistic. In Q4 we began to see underlying
growth once we adjusted for one‑time events that had been masking the true
trajectory of the business. Much of 2025 was characterized by a “wait‑and‑see”
approach, particularly in corporate group and business travel, and those needs
can only stay on the sidelines for so long. As that demand returns and we layer
in the exceptional travel volumes expected around the World Cup, I have a
stronger level of confidence that RevPAR will rebound in 2026, probably more
confidence than many industry sentiments.”
I have the same level of confidence – meaning not overly optimistic. There will continue to be have/have not between luxury and the rest of the market.
Ben Rafter
Philip “Flip” Maritz, managing director Broadreach Capital
Partners, co-founder, Maritz, Wolff & Co.
“I’m more optimistic because we have apparently moved on
from tariffs... at least from extreme tariffs. Plus, inflation and labor
pressures are moving in a better direction.
“Like much of the world in so many respects right now, I believe that contrary
and simultaneous forces will drive extremely divergent results based on
geography, market position, demand drivers, local/regional politics, and so on.
So, overall trends/aggregated results will
often boil to averaging wildly different outcomes.”
David McCaslin, co-founder, CapStar Advisors
“I am more optimistic about RevPAR growth in 2026 than I was
in early in 2025. The primary driver in my mind is a greater certainty
among all potential customers. Regardless of what you think of them, a
major tax and investment bill is passed. Tariffs are more predictable as
are interest rate levels. Customers hold back on uncertainty and respond
when the norms are established. So, I think the pent-up demand from people
holding back will be a positive, as well as a more stimulative Fed.”
Ben Rafter, CEO, Hotel Equities
“I have the same level of confidence – meaning
not overly optimistic. There will continue to be have/have not between luxury
and the rest of the market.”