Business travel spending could hit $1.48T

While recovery has been impressive, the GBTA said it is important to note that when adjusted for inflation, spending levels are anticipated to lag pre-pandemic highs over the coming years, implying that business travel volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels as well.

And despite a bullish forecast, the GBTA warned about potential headwinds such as changing economic conditions, technological advancements and sustainability challenges. It said persistent inflation, China’s slower recovery, geopolitical tensions, industry workforce challenges and incidence of natural disasters could result in shifts to the outlook. Increased focus on corporate sustainability also has the potential to impact the sector, demonstrating the vital importance of coordinated action across the industry for business travel’s future.

Potential upside impacts for the business travel sector include ongoing economic stability, technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), and stronger-than-expected economic growth in key markets like the U.S. and India.

Highlights from the 2024 GBTA BTI Outlook:

• The estimated breakdown of the $1.34 trillion in 2023 business travel expenditures includes $501 billion for lodging, $282 billion for air travel, $245 billion for food and beverage, $165 billion for ground transportation and $142 billion for other travel expenses.
• Recovery in business travel continues to vary by region. Asia Pacific emerged as the fastest-growing region in 2023 (36%), followed by Western Europe (33%) and North America (25%). The recovery bounce back was led in 2023 by the U.S., Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, all achieving 100% or more of 2019 spending numbers. For 2024, China and the U.S. are forecast to continue to lead as the top two markets, respectively, for overall business travel spending.
• Business travel spending also continues to differ across industries. The financial and insurance activities sector is projected to experience the most significant expansion (72%) in business travel spending through 2028. Conversely, the retail trade (41%) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (32%) sectors are anticipated to see the least growth during this period.
• GBTA’s survey of 4,100 business travelers across 28 countries and four regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America), revealed an increase in overall business travel, with international travel remaining below average. Fully, 64% of business travelers globally report increased spending on business travel compared to 2023. However, 37% say they have experienced more restrictive travel policies since pre-COVID.
• Business travelers globally estimate their own spending, on average, amounts to $834 per person based on their last business trip. Lodging accounts for $312, on average, and food and beverage is $153. Air travel averages $176 while ground transportation ($103) and miscellaneous expenses ($89) round out the total.
• A majority of survey respondents (81%) reported that their most recent business trip was very (46%) or moderately (35%) worthwhile in achieving their business objectives. When asked about their most recent business trip, the most common purpose of travel among all global business travelers is attending seminars/training followed by conventions/conferences.
• Two-fifths (40%) of the trips taken are three-to-five-night stays, while two-night stays account for one-third (32%). Additionally, 58% said they extended work trips for leisure or vacation about the same (41%) or more frequently (17%) than previous.
• When asked about their greatest priorities while traveling for work, maximizing comfort (43%) and minimizing cost (41%) are on the same level globally, with 16% saying reducing carbon emissions. Additionally, European travelers (22%) are more likely to prioritize reducing their carbon footprint compared to other regions.