Hyatt points to 4Q25 uptick

CHICAGO – Every public hotel company is pointing to the fourth quarter of 2025 for better results, including Hyatt Hotels Corp., with CFO Joan Bottarini saying during the company’s second quarter earnings call that the second half of the year suggests 6% growth in EBITDA with a majority of that to be earned in the fourth quarter.

While group pace has been lagging in the second half of this year, Hyatt CEO Mark Hoplamazian said it looks better for next year, adding that overall performance is an “improving picture” for 2026. This optimism comes as CoStar and Tourism Economics cited “unrelenting uncertainty and inflation” as reason it just downgraded its 2025-26 forecasts.

“The group pace into next year is extremely strong, with a lot of it represented by rate increases,” Hoplamazian added.

While there are overall headwinds and tough comps, especially in the third quarter, Hoplamazian added, “the more important message is that we see an improving picture heading into 2026.”

As we talk to our top corporate customers, they are confident in getting back on the road post-Labor Day.

Joan Bottarini

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Bottarini added that Hyatt expects to return to positive RevPAR growth in the fourth quarter, led by group and business transient.

“As we lap easier comparisons to last year, we believe RevPAR could be up in the low- to single-digits for the balance of the year,” she continued. “We anticipate our properties in Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China, will have the strongest growth in RevPAR of any geographic regions as they continue to benefit from significant international inbound travel in Europe.”

Bottarini also pointed to better pickup on the business transient side that Hyatt expects to realize post Labor Day into the fourth quarter. “As we talk to our top corporate customers, they are confident in getting back on the road post-Labor Day,” she said.

Overall, Bottarini said Hyatt expects RevPAR growth to be flat for the balance of year, with RevPAR growth contracting in the third quarter as they lapse difficult comparisons, including the Olympics in Paris last summer. They expect RevPAR growth to be positive in the fourth quarter as comps get easier.

“We feel really good about our expectations based on the bookings that we’re seeing and those estimates that we provided for the remainder of the year,” she said.

Like its competitors, Hyatt is seeing continued strength in luxury and all-inclusive resort business. Its highest end chain scales outperformed with luxury brand RevPAR up more than 5% in the second quarter. Hoplamazian said all-inclusive net package RevPAR in the Americas increased 6% year-over-year in 2Q25 (pacing +5% in 3Q25), highlighting the continued strength of luxury all-inclusive travel.

RevPAR outside of the U.S. performed well in 2Q25 with continued strength in Europe and Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China. However, Bottarini said Greater China grew RevPAR for the second consecutive quarter due to strength in leisure transient.

Asset sales

Hoplamazian said the Playa real estate deal should close by the middle of the fourth quarter with Hyatt entering into 50-year management deals for 13 of the 15 resorts in 2026. Hyatt expects to earn $60-65 million in top line fees that are expected to translate into $55-60 million in 2026 EBITDA.

Brands like Hyatt Select, Hyatt Studios and Unscripted by Hyatt will allow us to grow with intention in markets where we have significant white space. In the U.S. alone, we are absent for more than 50% of STR tracks, and in tracks where we have a presence, our hotel account is approximately 20% the size of our largest competitors.

Mark Hoplamazian

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The additional rooms from Playa will also add approximately 70 basis points to Hyatt’s full-year 2025 rooms growth outlook, which it has raised to 6.7% to 7.7%, inclusive of the Playa rooms.

He also said that Hyatt expects the implied multiple on the net purchase price for the asset light business to be 8.5 to 9.5 times, “a very strong outcome, consistent with our stabilized valuations on asset light acquisitions since 2017.”

Hoplamazian added that Hyatt continues to make progress on the sale of several other owned assets. He said three hotels that were under a formal marketing process last quarter are now subject to an exclusivity agreement, and they expect to sign a letter of intent soon.

Hyatt also has one property that is under a signed PSA and two more that are under letters of intent.

Hyatt also remains under contract for the sales of Hyatt Grand Central New York and the Andaz London, Liverpool Street. But it does not expect either of those transactions to close this year.

As Hyatt continues to move to an even greater asset light model, Hoplamazian said, “We are now at an inflection point, poised to scale with efficiency and speed as we further expand into the upscale and upper midscale segments. Brands like Hyatt Select, Hyatt Studios and Unscripted by Hyatt will allow us to grow with intention in markets where we have significant white space. In the U.S. alone, we are absent for more than 50% of STR tracks, and in tracks where we have a presence, our hotel account is approximately 20% the size of our largest competitors. This white space gives us robust growth opportunities.”

2Q25 results review

Comparable system-wide RevPAR increased 1.6% year-over-year (YOY) in 2Q25.

Net rooms growth was 11.8% and 6.5% when excluding acquisitions.

Pipeline of executed management or franchise contracts was approximately 140,000 rooms, an increase of approximately 8% YOY.

For full-year 2025 (not including the impact of the Playa Hotels acquisition and the pending Playa real estate transaction), Hyatt forecast:

• Comparable system-wide RevPAR growth is projected between 1% to 3% YOY.
• Net rooms growth, excluding acquisitions, is projected between 6% to 7% YOY.
• Net income is projected between $135 million and $165 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $1.085 billion and $1.130 billion, a YOY increase of 7% to 11% after adjusting for assets sold in 2024.
• Capital returns to shareholders is projected to be approximately $300 million, through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

On the development side, Hyatt opened 8,920 rooms, inclusive of approximately 2,600 rooms associated with the Playa Hotels acquisition.

Hyatt also announced a new upscale brand, Unscripted by Hyatt, which is designed to unlock growth through adaptive reuse and conversion-friendly opportunities.